Global: Two statistical fallacies

Two statistical fallacies to overcome by way of new years resolutions when trying to make sense of the news we read as we commute to work each day. The first is that a drop in stock market prices means an economic collapse is taking place. Prices fluctuate all the time and some of these can look drastic without being a bad omen. What is more, the price of stock does not (immediately at least) affect liquidity for the company whose stock is being traded – as they got their capital when the stock was first listed. Yes, it will affect confidence and the value of future share issues, but that is all. In fact, as every investor knows, the company fundamentals and stock price are not strongly linked at all. The second fallacy is that reported fatalities through accidents, wars and assaults indicate a decline in social order. The total loss of life reported in the press, though tragic in itself, should be put in the context of unreported statistics – such as the fact that around 60 people in India lose their life every day due to snake bites. More tragic for society, and the individuals in it, (and something we seldom read about in the press) is that 45% of the World’s population will never live beyond age 65 – and before modern medicine it used to be far higher.