Between the first and second quarter of 2020, GDP fell by 11.9% in the European Union (EU). But in the UK it fell by 20.4%. We anticipate recovery across the EU (except Spain) during Q3 of 2020. In the UK (which has already left the EU) any recovery will only be short-lived – due to trade losses and barriers when the UK severs formal ties with its biggest market at the end of December 2020.
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