September 1st 2019
Deal or no deal, the EU is in control of Brexit
What the central political players in the UK Brexit debate have failed to realise is that the UK’s departure from EU Membership on October 31st, with or without a deal, is no longer in their hands. The invoking of Article 50, several rounds of failed negotiations over a deal and subsequent political fragmentation have ensured that.
It is the European Union – principally the European Commission and Council of Ministers – who have the absolute power to allow the UK to remain in the EU, or leave it and to dictate the day it happens. The current UK debate about leaving with a deal or no deal is entirely sterile and it is irrelevant what any UK court decides – especially as there is no written UK constitution.
Voting not to leave the EU without a deal will have no affect on the UK’s continued EU membership unless the EU itself gives the UK more time – and there is no indication that this will be given whilst the UK has its current Prime Minister. There is only one slight chance of securing a delay and that is if there was a “no confidence” UK parliamentary vote and consequent general election. The EU would not wish to finally activate Article 50 if a UK general election was in progress.