It is certainly not the news we want to hear, but it now appears probable that by Q3 2020 – at least for Europe and the Americas – there will be a heavy downswing. How has FedEE reached this conclusion?
For an explanation – see FedEE’s new Global Economic Bulletin.
At a press conference today FedEE’s Secretary-General, Robin Chater, pointed out that:
“Seeing over the horizon is relatively easy. It is normally the present we cannot understand. But the Federation is almost alone in its latest economic prediction. It is not supported by the World Bank, IMF or OECD – even though OECD predictive indicators clearly point the way. Officially this will require there to have been a contraction in GDP for three consecutive quarters. Normally, however, economists wait for two quarterly falls in GDP and then declare what they expect will be the next quarterly outcome”.
He also conceded that “No actual contraction has yet taken place even for one quarter – except probably in Brazil. So time alone will tell – although the Federation predicted the last recession twelve months in advance and the outcome of the Brexit vote long before the referendum took place.”