Politically distortion-free growth figures

The Federation of International Employers (FedEE) is the only body that corrects official statistics for political distortions (PDs) applied by governments to conceal the true picture of their economies.

The latest economic projections from FedEE reveals that, once PDs have been taken into account, almost 40% of the countries reviewed had a very high risk of suffering a recession next year. The countries included: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Africa and the UK. Only three counties were classified as having little or no risk of recession – China, Ghana and India.

Price inflation is, however, not likely to be a major problem – except in Hungary, Brazil, India and South Africa. Cost-push pressure will therefore not be a significant factor in wage growth and in Italy, Japan, South Korea, South Africa and the United Kingdom the leeway, under a balanced economy, for pay deals next year will be less than 1%.

Here are FedEE FY2020 projections for key economies Worldwide:

Country

Consumer Prices

GDP

Salary Budget

Brazil

4.2

-0.5

1.3

China  

2.3

2.2

4.0

Germany

1.8

-0.4

1.4

Japan

1.0

-1.2

0.6

UK

2.2

-1.8

0.1

USA

2.4

0.0

1.7

Announcing the report today Robin Chater, Secretary-General of the Federation of International Employers (FedEE), pointed out that “It has been a hard task to untangle the true economic position of many countries because of the significant manipulation of GDP figures for political ends. There is strong evidence that the true picture in the UK, for instance, is being heavily disguised ahead of the General Election on December 12th 2019. Due to necessary corrections, the FedEE projections are at variance with those issued by national governments and international bodies – such as the IMF – which persist in playing down the prospect of a global recession by the third quarter of 2020.”

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