I wish I could be more optimistic

The other day I was asked what worried me most about the next two to five years. I had never put such a straightforward question to myself before and I would like to have replied that the world has its own immune system and eventually all problems will be resolved. But then the precautionary principle kicked in and my answer was immediate and far from partisan.

I do not think the world is going ever to be a safer place as the years roll on and it is very likely to become far more dangerous. There is nowhere now in the world that does not run a risk from global terrorism and at some stage the non-islamic world is going to have to come to a conclusion about whether this is due to prevailing values in the west – or whether it is an endemic outcome of certain belief systems. So many people live as prisoners in Plato’s cave. Just read Updike’s novel “Terrorist” to get an insight into the way the materialism of western civilization is generating negative and sometimes dangerous counter-cultures.  Ever since I was a child and began to read world history, I have believed that god-based religions will destroy human civilization long before any asteroid or cooling of the sun. The depth and pace of instability and deranged sensibilities has been greatly accelerated since the dawn of the Internet and not attenuated by advances in education. Whilst violent fundamentalism has been sparked fully into life by the USA and UK through two needless Iraq wars.

I think the biggest immediate issue facing the world is the increasing isolation of Russia. Just at a time when oil and gas prices are hitting at its economy the EU and USA are applying severe and senseless sanctions. Sanctions hit fruit farmers in Spain and machine tool manufacturers in Germany just as readily as Russian importers and the Russian people. It is adding far more immediately to world instability because the world needs Russia to help resolve middle-east tensions and contribute to the global economic recovery. Russia does understandably feel anxious about the expansion of NATO and possible EU membership of Ukraine and we should all read a bit of history and discover the deep roots shared by St Petersburg and Kiev.

From an immediate HR point of view what worries me most are deflation and executive security.

We can see from Japan what a huge impact deflation can have on living standards and investment. When prices are likely to be lower tomorrow, people put off purchasing decisions and sales slump – thus perpetuating the fall in prices. In the end everyone loses. But deflation also has a huge impact on employee relations. Gone will be the cost of living imperative in pay reviews and employees who are just catching up after pay freezes during the recession years may well find that frozen pay levels are here to stay.

How many companies happily let their senior executives book tickets and fly anywhere that business opportunities or necessities require them to be? But does their HR Director take a direct interest in the security of their movements? Even if there is a security function in a company HR remains responsible for employee safety and there is an increasing risk of abduction for ransom or political ends in even the safest seeming countries. All it requires is the forced replacement of the driver of the car due to pick them up at their destination. The person holding a card displaying the executive’s or company’s name in the airport arrivals hall could be a kidnapper – or the family of the familiar driver could be being held by a criminal gang. In some countries this is almost a daily risk – but due to company compliance and protectiveness of reputations it seldom reaches the headlines.

The world was never a very predictable place – but you can be sure of one thing: if bad things can happen they surely will happen.

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