I have a cartoon hanging in my study that I commissioned long ago from a well-known Irish cartoonist. It is of a dam bursting and the reactions of all the cartoon characters in its wake. It was originally commissioned as the end of the world – but it could easily be renamed “The end of an economy”.
The prospect of economic collapse in the UK gets nearer by the day – yet so few people seem to be taking it seriously. That is the deceptive nature of tragedy – before the storm hits you can see the black clouds building, but everything still seems normal, birds continue to sing in the air and the 99 bus turns up on time. Like that Bruegel painting of the fall of Icarus. His wings have melted and he is falling from the sky but all below life goes on – just like on the inevitable day we pass away, nothing will fundamentally change in the world in spite of its personal tragedy.
The UK general election is just a few weeks away and the electorate may be about to commit its greatest ever historical blunder. The European Union accounts for half of UK exports and maintains the country as Europe’s second largest economy – yet the most likely prospect of the forthcoming election is the rise to power of UKIP, a cosmetically dressed up version of the former right wing National Front that is strongly opposed to EU membership. Together with the conservatives – the so-called party for business – they will probably be in a position to form a government and the conservatives have already promised a referendum on EU membership in 2017.
How many UK companies or foreign companies with European head offices in the UK have contingencies in place for the aftermath of the forthcoming UK national election? If UKIP does take a significant share of the vote then the outcome of the referendum will increasing appear to be the departure of the UK from the European Union. Such a departure will not leave the UK in a position like Norway or Switzerland – not EU members but conforming broadly with EU member requirements. It will leave the European dream in tatters. An alliance that has maintained peace and prosperity for the last 60 years. For not only will such an outcome be a disaster for the UK economy, but so too for all its EU partners.
If my prediction is true – and I sincerely hope I am wrong – then over a very brief time there will be a huge shift in the economic balance power in the world and the biggest beneficiary will be Asia. India is already the fastest growing economy in the world and the Chinese miracle is far from over – so buy your tickets to New Delhi and Shanghai now – before the rush.